Regional NSW rising as Sydney falls: Hotspotting’s Terry Ryder
Markets in Regional NSW continue to head in the opposite direction to Sydney. While the Sydney market is showing increasing signs of decline (generally speaking – there are exceptions), the cities and towns of Regional NSW are delivering growth markets right across the state.
This is particularly evident in the price data. Hotspotting’s location-by-location analysis has revealed 150 Regional NSW locations where median prices have grown 5% or more in the past year, of which 65 locations have increased more than 10%.
In addition to the 150 places with 5%-plus price growth, there are another 67 locations with annual price growth between 1% and 5%.
The growth has been led by seven locations with a growth of 20% or more: Crestwood (up 26%) Evans Head (up 23%), Kiama (up 22%), Catalina (up 21%), Berry (up 20%), Soldiers Point (up 23%) and the Shoal Bay unit market (up 31%).
The Newcastle region has been particularly strong on price growth in the past year. The LGAs of Newcastle, Lake Macquarie and Port Stephens all have multiple suburbs with solid to strong median price growth.
The Central Coast is another standout, with 13 suburbs with median price growth above 5%, including Ettalong Beach (up 17%), Kincumber (up 10%) and Wamberai (up 13%).
In terms of locations with rising demand, as measured by quarterly sales activity, our Summer survey has found 53 Regional NSW locations with markets trending upwards. This is slightly below the average of the past two years and is down on the 70 rising markets identified in the Spring 2018 sales survey.
The Queanbeyan-Palerang LGA just outside Canberra is the leading precinct, with five locations with rising demand. Leading locations include Crestwood and Queanbeyan East, where quarterly sales activity has been trending steadily upwards over the past 1-2 years. Crestwood’s median house price has risen 26% in the past 12 months.
The Newcastle region continues to stand out, although Newcastle itself is past the peak in terms of sales activity. There are only two Newcastle suburbs with rising demand but many with plateau markets. The previous strong demand is still delivering significant price growth and a number of suburbs (including Hamilton, Hamilton South, Mayfield, Wallsend and North Lambton) have risen more than 10% in the past year.
Outside Newcastle in neighbouring LGAs, Lake Macquarie and Maitland both have four suburbs with rising demand, while nearby Port Stephens has two. Out in the Hunter Region, Singleton, Muswellbrook and Scone all have increasing buyer activity. Muswellbrook’s quarterly sales have been 41, 52, 57, 74, 60 and 78 in the past 18 months – and its median house price has risen 8% to $305,000 in the past year.
Tamworth is one of the emerging markets. It now has four suburbs with rising demand, including North Tamworth where quarterly sales have been 17, 30, 34, 39, 34, 41 and 45 – with its median house price up 11.5% to $430,000 in the past 12 months.
There are towns with growth markets right across Regional NSW, including Casino, Kyogle, Cooma, Griffith, Parkes, Gunnedah, Cowra, Glen Innes, Inverell, Gloucester, Lithgow, Mudgee, Tuncurry and Broken Hill.
Some significant markets have passed their peaks in terms of sales activity but still, have strong prices. They include the Central Coast, Newcastle, Wollongong, the towns of the Wingecarribee LGA and the Tweed region near the Queensland border.
In the Tweed area, prices have risen strongly in the past 12 months in Bogangar (11%), Casuarina (19%) and Kingscliff (14%).
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au,firstname.lastname@example.org, twitter.com/hotspotting